Where are the opportunities for latecomers who account for more than half of the "three silly new energy vehicles" market?

"Traffic congestion" has become the norm during the 11th National People’s Congress, which is the booming demand of China’s economy under the influence of the epidemic. This kind of stimulus and the traditional double blessing of "Golden September and Silver 10" in the automobile market are directly reflected in the performance of the new energy market.

Before the festival, major new energy vehicle companies released their performance. According to the official sales data disclosed by Weilai and Tucki, the sales of the two new car-making forces both exceeded 10,000 vehicles in September. With the current market share and growth trend of "three silly new energy vehicles", the sales of three new energy vehicles, Weilai, Tucki and Ideality, will account for more than half of the sales of mid-to high-end vehicles.

Obviously, in the new energy vehicle market of "small steps and quick running", the window of opportunity for "new entrants" will not be very long. If we can’t grasp the window period of 2022-2023 and make some achievements in vehicle models and market sales, the market of passenger cars, which will be combined for a long time and divided for a long time, will be stabilized again. At that time, the situation of new car companies that invested huge amounts of R&D and marketing expenses in the early stage will be very embarrassing.

The new forces of making cars are picking off traditional car companies.

After surviving the previous market’s doubts about technology, brand and marketing ability, Weilai, Ideality and Tucki, which are called "electric three fools" by the industry, have begun to take the market position occupied by traditional car companies with the hard indicator of monthly sales.

The sales volume of Weilai (EC6+ES6) exceeded 10,000 in September, which has surpassed that of Mercedes-Benz GLC and BMW X3 in the same price level. With the delivery of 10,412 units, Tucki’s P7 has also surpassed mercedes benz c and Volkswagen Magotan in the same level.

It is necessary to know that both BMW X3 and Volkswagen Magotan are models that occupy the top spot in their respective markets all the year round, and the once stable automobile market is being torn open by the new forces that build cars. Moreover, such sales data is still completed in the case of global chip shortage.

It can be predicted that once the shortage of car-gauge chips is alleviated next year, coupled with the release of various new models at the Beijing Auto Show in 2022, the sales of Weilai, Ideality and Tucki will surpass the traditional star models such as BMW 3 Series, BMW 5 Series, Accord and Camry in an all-round way.

Are there any chances for the rookie car companies who entered the market after 02?

As far as the current situation is concerned, the new car-making forces represented by Weilai, Tucki and Ideality have begun to enter the "delivery-R&D" operation cycle, and established mature systems such as vehicle design, technology R&D and marketing.

If the previous growth rate is predicted, China is expected to achieve the goal of 5 million+sales of new energy vehicles in 2022. With the current market share and growth trend of "electric three fools", the sales of three new energy vehicles will account for more than half of the sales of mid-to high-end models.

This also means that the new energy vehicle market, which seems to have unlimited prospects, leaves few opportunities and shares for latecomers.

In the past two years, car-making brands represented by Baidu, Huawei and Xiaomi with the genes of technology Internet companies are gaining fame. Except Huawei, which is determined to become the second Bosch -BOSCH in the field of smart cars, the car-making routes of Baidu and Xiaomi fully reflect their different "Internet styles".

Taking Xiaomi as an example, its road to building a car and the path of mobile phone business are "similar". Since the official announcement of the car in March this year, Xiaomi has started the road of investment and mergers and acquisitions with lightning speed, covering the fields of sensors, vehicle design and autonomous driving required for the production of new energy vehicles. On the whole, Xiaomi still hopes to copy his successful tactics in the mobile phone market in the automobile market.

Although the industrial chain of China’s automobile market is highly mature, it can’t be ignored that the complexity of the integration of mobile phones as consumer electronics and automobiles is not the same. Xiaomi has proved himself with a mobile phone, but it is only successful in the mobile phone market. In the field where integration is slightly more difficult, Xiaomi’s success rate is not high; Taking flat-panel TV as an example, Xiaomi TV has had some problems, such as poor picture effect, light leakage from the panel, flying line of the driving board and so on.

After all, the last company that cut into the car-making market from mobile phones has disappeared near the East Fourth Ring Road in Beijing. I hope that Xiaomi will carefully examine the difficulty of making cars while being radical.

Let’s look at Baidu again. As a new car-making brand jointly established by Baidu and Geely, Jidu Automobile gained some media and market attention through a series of aggressive marketing actions after its establishment in March this year. Although Baidu and Robin Li frequently voiced for the platform of Jidu, from the perspective of Baidu and Geely, the strategic role played by Jidu Automobile may not be as "All in" as the tooling!

When Baidu’s first quarter financial report was released in 2021, Li Yanhong made it clear in an open letter: "Apollo has to walk on three legs: one is to provide solutions for car companies, the other is to build cars through concentration, and the third is Robotaxi." Although it ranks second, it is the weakest link.

The overall solution of Apollo car companies and Robotaxi are complementary. Robotaxi operated by Baidu is not only a channel for Apollo platform to accumulate data and upgrade iteratively, but also a display platform for Baidu to promote Apollo solutions to car companies. The significance is self-evident.

Since its establishment, Jidu Automobile, which has made frequent noises, may be an internal entrepreneurial project with "not much, not much" for Baidu. Because the Apollo platform itself is an intelligent package solution for car companies, it needs a "model room" to show its capabilities. After all, since the announcement of "All in" artificial intelligence in 2013, Baidu has not produced enough products to surprise the market except Apollo.

For Geely, Jidu automobile is a case of its wide-spread tactics. 45% of the shares, the role of the OEM; These two factors make Geely not invest more resources in Jidu cars, and the empowerment of SEA Hanhai architecture is not as important as the outside world thinks. For the OEM, the marginal cost of one or two more application models for a common architecture is very small, just like Volkswagen’s MQB platform is used in more than ten models from A-class car Xinbao to B-class benchmark Magotan. For Geely, his own leader is the "pro-son".

On the other hand, the first new forces to build cars have established a perfect sales and after-sales system, and the efforts in these channels can not be done overnight.

"I feel that the Internet is still not enough to build a car. Whether it is a direct sales or a 4S shop system, a car always needs a feasible after-sales service capability. It takes time for technicians and venue equipment to establish. In a short time, I am not very optimistic about these brands that are purely Internet-built." A person who has been engaged in the operation of luxury car 4S stores all the year round told Yidu Finance.

03 mass production may not be the only indicator?

Judging from the trend that the sales of new car-making forces broke through 10,000 in September, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China automobile market is expected to exceed 30% or even 35% in 2022. This trend means that the sales of new energy vehicles in China will exceed the threshold of 5 million vehicles in 2022. The new car-making forces (Weilai, Ideality and Tucki) with stable product strength and sales have the ability to establish their own market position and establish a barrier of "technology+market".

Although the official announcement was made in March, the mud model blew holes in June, and the road test spy photos were exposed in September. The speed is comparable to that of a "three-stage rocket", but according to the official plan, the 2022 Beijing Auto Show is still only to launch quasi-mass production models, and this progress is not enough to support the expectations given by Baidu and Geely.

Before, the new forces who built cars have made small achievements, followed by the rapid awakening of traditional OEMs. Although the speed of collection has been very fast, there is still a long way to go before the spy car is far from the production car. If Jidu wants to get a share in the field of new energy vehicles, I am afraid it will have to speed up the progress.

Of course, even if the concentration is temporarily "unable to help the wall", Baidu’s Apollo can still benefit from it. It is not only a platform to show its capabilities to car companies, but also can be used in Robotaxi business. For Baidu, Jidu is more like an internal entrepreneurial project. Even if it fails, its influence and resource loss are under control.

From this perspective, focusing on Baidu is not a way to participate in the competition of new energy vehicles after mass production. Because, Baidu Geely’s joint efforts this time also lie in the fact that both sides need a new story.

In the PC era, Baidu once became the internet company with the highest market value by relying on advertising business. However, in the era of mobile Internet, the portal function of search engines has weakened, and in addition, information flow products have robbed Internet products. Although Baidu is still the "big brother" in the search field, its share price has been undervalued for a long time. AI has always been regarded as the "key" for Baidu to return to the peak, among which Apollo autopilot is the core part.

Look at Geely, as the first traditional car company to explore the new energy track, it has not gone smoothly in recent years, and the dear energy vehicles launched have always been tepid. In the first half of 2021, the sales of Geely new energy vehicles accounted for less than 5.45%. With more and more players on the track, there is not much time left for it.

From this point of view, the cooperation between Baidu and Geely is highly complementary. The former has a leading autonomous driving scheme in the industry and has its own "protagonist aura", but it lacks relevant hardware experience, and the automobile industry experience is almost zero. It needs Geely’s SEA architecture and production capacity to make up for its own shortcomings.

Write at the end:

Zhang Ailing said: "If you like someone, you will humble yourself to the dust and then blossom." Marriage between enterprises may also apply. However, many times, those who seem to be "humble" in feelings are actually the one who is strong inside and the leader of the relationship.

In this relationship between Baidu and Geely, Geely is more like an irresponsible Neptune. Baidu’s investment is much higher than Geely’s. This may also mean that Baidu is the key factor to the extent that the car can reach in the future.